2025 Week 1: Top Men. Top… MEN
The good news is football is back. The bad news is that only two games were worth a shit from both a watchability standpoint and a fantasy production one. The WORSE news is one of them was the Steelers and the Jets.
That game was absolutely awesome and did not have any business being so. I refuse to live in a world where the Aaron Rodgers/Steelers pairing ends in anything but the funniest car crash we’ve ever seen. I won’t have it. If he throws four TDs again, we’ll never hear the end of it. He’ll go on McAffe and wax poetic for two hours about how tumeric water and cayenne cider is Mother Earth’s vaccine against the true killer: inflammation. There will be shirts and flags and branded “cleanser” drinks that the stupidest dude you know will buy by the case. First, because he thinks it’s funny, then because he’s certain it makes his dick more intelligent or whatever. Before you know it, the FDA will require every American to drink a yearly gallon of Dr. Rodgers’ Miracle Elixir or risk expatriation.
We can’t let Rodgers have success. I don’t care how good a QB he used to be. I tried apple cider vinegar once. It sucks. I’m not gonna stand by and let it become the new Gatorade.
Speaking of overrections, how do we feel about our teams? Week one tells us almost nothing, but we are certain it has revealed everything. This is the cycle of fantasy participation. Absolute, unshakeable confidence hanging by the finest and barest of threads. Let’s get into it.
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This year, I am essentially doing what I do here, but for money on a different site. So I have a LOT of writing to do on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, I might not have something for our early segment every week, or it might change. But I do this week!
I bring you “That One Weird Thing,” celebrating a moment from a movie or TV show that was so profoundly strange, you haven’t stopped thinking about it since it happened. For this installment, we travel back 20 years….
That One Weird Thing
I know a couple things about Kill Bill Vol. 2.
I know it was released in 2004.
I know it ended with Uma Thurman exploding a man’s (Bill’s) heart with the five-finger whatsadoodle.
I thought I knew that she rides a motorcycle with a spot for her katana on it, but that was actually Kill Bill Vol. 1.
The reason I retained so little about the second movie is because of the following scene. In it, Beatrix Kiddo (Uma) sits down with a man named Esteban Vihaio, hoping to get the location of Bill, so she can then Kill said Bill (Vol. 2).
The man playing Esteban is Michael Parks, who was in Kill Bill Vol. 1 as a country sheriff. Here, in this movie, he turns in a performance so comprehensively strange that I have forgotten almost everything else about the film and instead think about this four-minute scene every week of my life.
Everything about him both looks and sounds unlike anything any other human has ever done, and there is one particular line that haunts my entire consciousness every minute of every day. Let’s watch together.
A time-stamped review of this weird shit:
:06 The way Esteban says “JAAYYyess” when she says his name is an immediate warning that things are gonna be odd as fuck from here on. That greeting is the equivalent of being in a car and the driver putting on fight music as they get on the highway. You immediately buckle up.
:37 Next time someone asks you if you want to do something, try saying “I would relish the opportunity” the way Esteban says it with all the weird flourishes and hand gestures. It will make your whole day.
“Hey, do you wanna do burgers for dinner?”
“….I would raaaaylish de obbortuhnity.” It feels fantastic.
:48 Here’s where the affectations start to take a turn. His eyes are doing outrageous shit in these 10 seconds. He looks like a dog when it’s falling asleep on the couch, but keeps hearing stuff on the TV that it thinks might be important. Look:
Those stills are taken over the course of like 3 seconds.
1:05 Holy shit marry me, Uma Thurman.
1:11 BRO are you tired or not? I’ve never talked to someone who was actively on heroin, but the way the light switch behind Esteban’s eyes is flipping on and off has to be what that’s like.
2:12 This is a really gross way to talk to a human, and by “back when I was in business,” he definitely means both as a pimp AND as someone with a working dong, but it’s also a weirdly effective compliment. It seems like it takes monumental effort for Esteban to say anything, so the conviction with which he says she would be his “number one lady” would be really affirming if he said it to me.
2:24 There is not a single discernible word in this sentence. Esteban has used up all his elocution. That mouth is running on empty. Sleep could happen any second.
2:32:
Uma Thurman I will lie down in traffic for you.
2:34 HELL yeah Esteban is back. This one sentence should have won Parks an Oscar. “Tsk. De POOSY Dah-eeee.” The way that last part of “die” just falls off a cliff. Chef’s kiss.
P.S. Because I have watched this scene 6,000 times, I have, for years, been waiting for the best moment to unleash that line in normal conversation. Can you imagine? A friend or work acquaintance tells you, “Hey, sorry I didn’t respond to your text. I had to take my cat to the vet yesterday and she didn’t make it.”
Then, you respond:
That’s my dream.
2:42 Not a sequitor in sight. Esteban hears her van died and hard lefts into “didn’t you get shot in the fuckin’ head?” Use a little conversational lube, man.
2:56 Absolutely the correct response from Uma. Can’t do nothing with it. Pass that ball right back.
3:04 What in the fuck was that? That’s not a word or a name. That’s just a sound. He just SOUNDED as loud as he could at that woman and did the most labored kissy face this side of a toddler trying it out for the first time. LEEHNEENNGGGH! Listen:
3:15 “Leehneenngggh” is apparently a person.
3:23 Fuckin’ gross. That’s enough of “Leehneenngggh.”
3:45 What do you think that hanky looks like? Do you think it makes a sound when Esteban unfolds it? I bet it sounds like wet velcro.
3:50 Beatrix is out of patience. Every part of her body language and tone, though polite, is telegraphing that an ass kicking is about to commence if Esteban doesn’t get to it.
HERE IT COMES
3:52 “Whaaaayyyyrreeesss Beeeeellllllllllll…..” God damn it, that sound is in my head forever. It is the first thing my brain will serve up if left to its own devices. It hits me any time I am looking for anything. Any time I’m waiting on someone and they’re late. Sometimes I will look right at my dog and say it for no reason. It lives in me like a dark passenger, and I cannot and will not be free of it. It will drown out my loved ones’ last words to me on my deathbed.
3:55 This might be the most energy Esteban has ever had. He is practically glowing.
4:17 Uma, let’s get a date locked down, please. I’ll book the venue today.
4:20 The face Esteban pulls here is so clearly a leftover from when he was young and hot and CRUSHING ass. Look how quickly he sharpens up. Look at how soft and kind he makes those eyes. The eyebrow work is impeccable. He definitely pulled that face when singing to women, and it worked 100 percent of the time.
works best if you see it all in motion, but you get it. so did Esteban, back in the day.
Leehneenngggh sucks at her job. How does it take this long to pour two shots of tequila?
END.
Power Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Playoff Odds available Week 2
THE
GAMES
THE GAMES
DeWitt vs. Will (118.7-101.8)
Jalen Hurts began the season doing his Jalen Hurts Thing, where he puts up Brock Osweiler passing numbers but scores 25 fantasy points thanks to free rushing TDs, and Will looked like he was off to the races. DeVonta Smith was useless, but that’s not unusual. The Eagles essentially run a Wildcat offense in half of their games, so Will knew what he was signing up for when he took the second-fiddle wideout in an offense that hates the concept of the forward pass.
But then Pollard and Pacheco crashed out, McConkey was merely good instead of great, and McBride went right back to being the best part of an offense that can’t fucking stand the thought of him scoring. It all started to crumble, and when the dust settled, DeWitt had Will beat despite DeWitt’s entire team combining for two TDs going into Monday night.
This was largely because Will left 30 points on his bench in the form of Travis Etienne and Deebo Samuel, two beings who, until very recently, were thought to have outlived any relevance to fantasy football.
The worst part of seeing those types of games from those types of players is you know there are only like 2-3 of them in the chamber. Maybe Etienne is back and awesome now, but you know in your heart it’s much more likely you’ll get a string of 46-yard games than another one of 150+. At 29 years old, the odds of Deebo pulling or tearing something far outweigh those of him being the Next Unguardable Weapon for a second time.
No, those performances are dust in the wind; brief and beautiful in their time, but one-use-only experiences. They went unused, and now Will gets to spend the rest of the year consulting tarot cards and astrology charts trying to predict the next recurrence. OR he could focus on Quinshon Judkins! Quinshon is a very exciting rookie who faces both a possible suspension and the fact another exciting rookie shares the same backfield. Focus on that!
(Editor’s Note: Will will finish with 10 wins.)
DeWitt- how’s the CMC experience this time, my man? Pretty fun? Spending three days wondering if he’s gonna play, then three hours assuming every hit is his last sounds like a great way to spend the next four months. I’m sure that won’t be aggravating at all. But luckily for you, you paired that with the Cee Dee Lamb Experience. Like a top-tier rewards member, you are. All these fun experiences!
I saw a sign once in Homer, Alaska, that read: “If you can’t read this sign, it’s raining. If you can read this sign, it’s going to rain,” and I remember thinking that was about the most depressing thing a town could put up for morale. But I still think about that sign today, and right now I think it’s exactly what having Cee Dee Lamb is like.
“If you have Cee Dee Lamb, you aren’t happy with his performance.
If you are happy with his performance, you’re about to be unhappy with his performance.”
16.5 points is a respectable total for a WR 1. This week, it was the eighth-best number at the position. And yet.
Lamb left at least 10 more points on the table thanks to four drops, which is sort of what the season will be. He gave you a decent week, you guess, but you were really hoping for more. If he gives you a great week, the next one will underwhelm. You’ll look up in Week 9 and he’ll be the WR 5, but you won’t remember a single week where you felt safe. He’s there to tickle your imagination without ever satisfying your desire.
JJ vs. Jimmy (112.2-91.3)
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are two of the raddest dudes to ever play their respective positions, and with them the Cincinnati offense, on their best days, could beat any team in history. None of those days has ever been the first game of the season.
Just two guys who happen to have bet the under
Since Burrow got there, Cincy is 2-6 in Week 1 and scored less than 20 points four times. Burrow has thrown for less than 165 yards in Week 1 for three years running now, and is averaging 191 yards for his career in the first game of the season. He has five TDs and 5 INTs, and had no touchdowns in three of the six games.
Chase has totaled 127 Week 1 yards the last three years COMBINED. He did not score in any of the three.
Jimmy has the absolute best possible stack in fantasy football, and I managed to catch him on the one week of the season when it’s absolutely useless.
He also has AJ Brown. Now, AJ Brown has been perfectly fine in Week 1 before, but whooooo boy was he not fine Thursday night. The Cowboys played zone for every one of Hurts’ dropbacks, and Brown averages half the fantasy points on routes against zone coverage than he does against man. He managed to get one target all game- the lowest mark of his career. Worse, he ran 31 total routes, and it sounds like they were complete dogshit:
I’m sure that’s nothing to worry about. Seems like his hamstring is fine. I can’t find his route tree from the game because Next Gen only tracks routes where a guy was targeted, but I’m positive he never made it further than 15 yards downfield.
I am 2-0 (feels great to say that) but not because I did anything to earn it. Look:
That’s a kicker, a useless RB, and a guy who will never see that many points again this season. My best player is a WR with a hurt back on a team that exsanguinates quarterbacks, and my second-best player is either Hollywood Brown or a rookie who nearly cost his team the game in Week 1.
2-0 baby.
Steve vs. Micah (172-156.4)
Steve Weekly High Score
Remember last year when Steve had like three games come down to not only the final two games of the week, but the final PLAYS of those games? Most notably, his (historic, girthy) win streak ended when Tyrod Taylor, in as a backup, threw a meaningless touchdown as time expired on MNF in Week 1 and knocked Steve’s defense down 2 points for the loss.
Well Ol’ Stever is back on the ride again. But this time, he was the Ray Jay, not the Kim:
I bet Micah felt so safe. That Jets game ended with Fields and Hall combining for more than 46 points. Justin Fields at nearly 30 points? Micah thought he had that shit wrapped up then and there. Sprinkle in a little Marv, a dash of Kyle Pitts (which is all the Kyle Pitts there ever is), a tuddy from Joshy J? Mannnnn life was easy breezy.
It was 123.7-113.3 heading into SNF, and sure, Steve had Josh Allen and James Cook, but Micah had Derrick Henry! We all knew how this shit was gonna go. Just like last season.
And shit did go the way it was gonna, right up until abooouuuut:
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Did you know the Ravens ran 10 plays in the final 11:35 of the game? Two of those were punts, two of them involved Zay Flowers, one was a Lamar scramble, and one was a pass to DeAndre Hopkins.
The rest?
Derrick Henry 3-yard gain
Derrick Henry 1-yard loss
Derrick Henry 9-yard loss and FUMBLE
Derrick Henry 1-yard gain
Bet Micah didn’t see that coming.
Josh Allen, forever doomed to “do this shit myself,” fucked Baltimore all the way up in the fourth quarter. Following Henry’s 46-yard TD, which was the last good memory the Ravens have of the game, Allen put up 185 yards passing, 20 on the ground, and one TD for each.
He scored 12 fantasy points after Henry’s fumble, when the Bills’ win probability was still just 2.2%.
(Also, the Ravens are cowards. Fucking 4th and 2 with the best rushing attack in the NFL and you punt? You know they only need a field goal to win. I don’t give a shit that the Bills are out of timeouts, you’re not punting to Bailey Zappe. Allen is the fucking MVP. You have one of those on your team. Would you punt to him? You would not.)
To the nerds!
“The Bills win probability was as low as 1.1% with 8:37 remaining in the fourth quarter trailing 40-25.
This was the most improbable comeback by the Bills with Josh Allen at quarterback, and the 13th-most improbable comeback by any team over the last decade. Prior to the Derrick Henry fumble with 3:10 remaining, the Bills win probability was 2.2%. Following the fumble recovery, the Bills had 3 plays with at least 10% of win probability added: 29-yard completion to Jackson Hawes (+11.2%), 34-yard completion to Josh Palmer (+36.0%), and 25-yard completion to Keon Coleman (+22.2%). The Ravens have now lost 7 games where they had a win probability of at least 90% at some point during the game since 2021, tied with the 49ers for the most in the NFL.”
Since historically, Steve is a lover of high-stakes, live-and-die moments that require undivided attention, he thoroughly enjoyed his viewing experience and hopes it continues. Nothing like having an hour-long physical reaction to something that is supposed to be perhaps the world’s most passive activity.
Dan vs. Kyle (97.9-72.7)
YEEEEEEEHAAWWWWW welcome to the SHOW, Daniel! How’d you like that first blast of ACTION? What a display, baby.
Steve outscored both these teams combined.
Daniel, like Justin, is entirely unaware that football exists outside of the NFC North. He has 3 Vikings, 3 Packers, and a Lion on his team, which is 45% of the roster.
How did that work out? Well, the Packers slapped the Lions around 27-13, but Dan’s starter Jordan Love managed to get outscored by Brock Purdy on his bench. Purdy threw two picks, and the Niners only scored 17 points. He still outscored Love by more than a full fantasy point.
Because Love threw the ball roughly 60 feet all day, NEWEST SPEEDSTER SENSATION MATTHEW GOLDEN OMG HES SO FAST THE NEXT TYREEK FUCK YEAH blew everyone away to the tune of two catches and 16 yards.
Fuckin ELECTRIC stuff, man
Daniel’s NFC North running back, David Montgomery, was booty.
You see, Daniel, this is the problem with only taking guys from three teams. Especially when those teams are in the NFC North. When they play each other, it’s nigh impossible for all of them to do well. I do commend you, though. At least you explore the division.
This game was closer than it should have been because Kyle, that fucking IDIOT, managed his lineup like a complete child.
Who doesn’t start Zach Charbonnet? What first-time-player-ass mfer benches Trevor Lawrence week one?! He left Ricky Pearsall AND Keenan Allen just sitting there!
Jesus Christ, man. I know everyone wants their draft day glory calls to be right, but you don’t have to start them all at once. Bet on a longshot if you feel the need, but maybe don’t risk a lineup featuring Dak Prescott, Nico Collins, AND Jahmyr Gibbs simultaneously.
Get it together.
On a serious note- I know it’s only one week, but if you have a Lions player in fantasy, you feel pretty fucking nervous right now, yeah?
In 2024, Detroit became one of seven teams in the last 10 years to average 3.8 touchdowns or more per game. None of those other six teams repeated their success. In fact, all of them scored at least 10 fewer touchdowns the following season. So the Lions were always due for regression. Add in both coordinators leaving and an All-Pro center retiring, and this starts to get a lot scarier.
The Lions had a 31% success rate on designed runs Sunday, which was their fourth or fifth-worst rushing game since 2022. Worse, there was a point deep in the game when Goff was averaging less than three air yards per attempt. He finished with 4.5 AYA (worse than everyone but Aaron Rodgers), but 31 of his 39 passes traveled less than 10 yards and they accounted for 26 of his 31 completions. This is a serious play they ran:
That wasn’t even close to correct. Look at the numbers difference on the line at the start of the play, and look at how completely fucked Montgomery was when he got the ball. The Lions had absolutely no idea what they were doing. Here’s a better angle:
YIKES.
All those people who countered Detroit’s massive coaching upheaval by yelling “DAN CAMPBELL IS STILL THERE!” must have forgotten what we all thought of Dan Campbell when he first showed up talking about mud fights and sack taps or whatever. Since then, everyone has raved about his motivational prowess and stroked themselves every time he went for it on fourth down and more than an inch. But this is still Dan Campbell, man.
A super charismatic potato still has all the limitations of a potato. You just like it more than other potatoes.
Jared Goff, while very nice, is dumb as hell. We covered this. Do we think Dan Campbell turned Jared Goff into a fucking chessmaster who picks apart NFL defenses, or do we think the OC maybe had something to do with that? Kind of important, since every goddamn piece of that offense depends on Goff doing shit correctly.
I’m happy for Lions fans that they love their coach, but as a fantasy owner, I really hope I didn’t just draft a key wideout on the league’s most motivated 4-13 team.
Lee Vs. Munson (129.5-85.3)
Speaking of suddenly feeling like you need to get that Detroit inventory off the lot, Munson got a tasty 6.5 from ASB and a gentleman’s 5.0 from the Lions DST. Combine that with a very Bo-Nixian score from Bo Nix, and this junk heap is dead in the water.
Here’s the thing about Bo Nix. He, uh, isn’t very good. We all got excited last season because nabbing him off waivers in Week 8 or whatever was the heist of the season, and you got a great QB for the stretch! What a get!
But he was only great because of the circumstances under which he was acquired. Put simply, he was great for a QB you picked up for 0 dollars in Week 8. Picking up and starting him meant something had already gone terribly wrong, so of course his performance was revered. Rarely do you find that level of solution to that level of problem at that point in the year.
A full season of Bo Nix as your fantasy QB is a different story.
So much for that whole “actually, Bo Nix does throw deep” routine. 1-for 6 with two picks when throwing 15+ yards. I don’t care that the 1 was a TD.
Last season, 57.7% of Nix’s passing yards were after the catch. That high of a percentage put him with Drew Lock, Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes, and Tua. All of whom you do not want as your fantasy QB.
His passer rating against the blitz (90.6) was 24th in the league, worse than Mac Jones and Derek Carr, and only 0.3 better than Gardner Minshew.
Under pressure, that fell to 53.7, which was worse than every quarterback but Minshew and Anthony Richardson. He was 15th in DVOA when he had a one-score lead, and 30th when his team was losing. Half of his picks were thrown when trailing.
None of that mattered when he was a miracle mid-season find who also ran a little bit. Y’all were loving life, taking that girl home from the bar and “just living in the moment, man!”
Different story when you gotta marry her, isn’t it? Flaws become a little more apparent, don’t they? Now that the knot is tied, let’s see how Bo did under pressure against the mighty Titans:
A prosperous union awaits.
Andres vs. Justin (139.7-101.9)
Few things are rarer than absolute certainty. We can think we know a thing, maybe even convince ourselves that thing is true, but almost never are we rock-solid certain about something unless we saw or did it ourselves. In this case, however, I am CERTAIN of this:
Sometime between going to bed Sunday night and the MNF kickoff, Justin convinced himself the Bears were going to save him. He believed with his whole person that there was a path to victory via DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cairo Santos, and D’Andre Swift, running back for the Chicago Bears. Those four would have to score the exact amount of points the rest of his team had already put up, and Andres would have to get nothing from his punter, but I would bet my life the words “it’s doable” or “it’s not that crazy” came out of Justin at least one time Monday, and when he said them he was actually softening how he really felt.
“Dude Moore and Swift could easily both get 20-plus, and Odunze only needs one big catch to get points. He’s a big play guy. Plus Santos will likely get three or four field goal shots.”
That’s the unedited version. That’s what he really thought.
He may have changed his mind once or twice, but that thought definitely made a nest in his brain at some point.
This, of course, did not come to pass. The Bears will be a better team this year, especially now that they know there are, in fact, four quarters in a football game. And all of those players will have weeks of exciting performances, and each of them will likely prove Justin correct for drafting them individually.
But despite his draft night claims, Justin knows he has too many of them on his team to compete this year. They may all end up being decent fantasy assets, but for him to win, they all have to be decent at the same time, and frequently. Yes, he CAN start a team without any Bears, but that team looks like this:
Mahomes/Mayfield
Saquon
Kaleb Johnson (1 carry, -2 yards) or Cam Skattebo (2 carries, -3 yards)
Travis Hunter (6 catches, 22 yards)
Devonta Adams
Travis Kelce
Sam LaPorta
Justin had one of the highest-scoring seasons in history last year and stripped away every possible lesson from it except one: He had a bunch of Bears on his team. If last year’s record-shattering team had some Bears, the clear answer to surpassing that team was NOT: add more Bears.
As we chronicled in detail, starting Bears was actually a net-negative on his team to the tune of 73.6 lost points. I tried my best to help, but education can only do so much.
CAN’T BEAR IT
Did Justin start a Chicago Bear when he shouldn’t have?
Tough question to answer.
Who wa- what do you mean?
Well, he did not have any other startable options. So… technically no. The Bears were the best option on paper. But in a big-picture sense, no one should ever be starting both receivers and a running back from the same team except in extremely unique circumstances- usually ones they didn’t create themselves.
Hmmm. Well. What was the cost?
An 0-2 start, since if the Bears don’t score a lot of points, his players can’t either.
Ok. Check in next week?
deal.
Andres is about to do this shit again, but this time using POINTS instead of MAGIC.
Bijan is gonna be the RB1 in fantasy. I am not the first, second, or 10,000th person to say that, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Did you know:
Robinson averaged 5.4 yards per carry against neutral boxes (seven defenders) last year? His EPA (expected points added) per rush against neutral boxes was +14.3. That might just sound like NERD SHIT, but this should help: Bijan’s EPA on those runs was triple Saquon Barkley’s.
That part is important, because Bijan just posted 29.4 fantasy points, and do you know how many neutral boxes he faced? Three.
Atlanta ran a truly disgusting game plan in which only 35% of their offensive attempts made it to the sticks. For context, no team finished lower than 37 percent last year. They had a 25% rushing success rate. The Falcons offense was the absolute worst version of itself and Bijan still hung up nearly 30 fantasy points.
Jaylen Warren he is not.
Andres also has Chase Brown and Tet McMillan, my pick for the number one fantasy defense, and Keon Coleman. Coleman was the annual “this guy is PRIMED for a year-2 breakout” nominee, except this time he actually did. If I draft that guy, he’s selling cars by Week 5.
And then there’s Michael Pittman. Now, normally I wouldn’t mention Michael Pittman, but as I was laying in bed last night I came across this from fantasy nerd Addison Hayes:
That is a hilariously small sample size, but is it the sort of stat I would absolutely CLING to as a Pittman owner? Fuck yeah, brother. In fact, I guarantee that 5 weeks from now, when I am looking to trade, the only thing I will remember about Michael Pittman is that he is set for that sixth-year leap. I won’t remember his stats or the fact that Daniel Jones is there, or that he’s already played five underwhelming seasons. That one mention of a hypothetical trend is all I need. Lock it in. Michael Pittman WR1.
Andres has a bunch of players I want, and it hurts because I know I cannot get them. He hasn’t executed a trade since at least 2018 (as far back as transaction history goes), and I think there’s a chance he may never have. I, on the other hand, have done 28 trades since 2020- the most by a mile.
Andres, we were born to work together. I beg you. Trade with me. Michael Pittman is going to shatter records and is worth any piece of mine you want. I read it on Twitter.
